An international oncology drug development company is developing a bispecific product, currently in preclinical development. As an initial evaluation, our client wanted to understand the products's value in metastatic/advanced colorectal cancer (CRC) and gastric cancer (GC) in 1L and 2L settings, for both indications. They reached out to Alacrita to create a sales forecast for this product in these four settings.


We modeled sales in the US, Europe, Japan and China; with an assumed uplift for rest-of-world. Some of the key forecast assumptions were provided by the client, others were estimated by us. We began by performing a literature review in order to validate the selected indications, CRC and GC, and the proposed biomarker estimates. We then estimated the current and projected target patient population in US, Europe, Japan and China and estimated a market share based on the competitive landscape. Using benchmark products and some of our client's assumptions, we estimated pricing and likely timelines to approval, we created a sales forecast for each of the indications and an accompanying PowerPoint report describing our analysis and assumptions.

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