Challenge:

An investor and asset manager was considering an investment in a European biotech company with one development product for hemophilia and another approved OTC product in an unrelated therapy area. The investor was a non-specialist and required an independent valuation for the two programs to evaluate the attractiveness of the acquisition.

Solution:

For the hemophilia product, Alacrita conducted a Monte Carlo simulation to express rNPV as a range and probability distribution. This model was used to account for the input assumptions carrying significant uncertainty. Alacrita projected the addressable market considering the target patient population, market share, drug pricing, clinical development timelines and costs, etc. Using this information, we estimated potential product revenue and considered the probability of success at each go/no-go development/regulator. Outputs of the valuation model also included histograms and tornado plots, the latter highlighting input parameters that drive the sensitivity of the valuation. 

The OTC product valuation was generated using both a discounted cash flow and a comparables transaction analysis.

Valuations

Our expertise in performing business and asset valuations covers a wide range of technology types including small molecules, biologics and cell and gene therapies. Valuations have been a staple of our practice since our inception in 2009.