Challenge
An early stage virtual company developing a siRNA knock-down technology to increase chemo-sensitivity of tumor cells had developed a specific formulation of its siRNA therapeutic using a partner’s vector system. The company wanted to raise further funds to complete formal preclinical and process development, heading towards a clinic-ready candidate. To support this, Alacrita was engaged to develop an independent expert report demonstrating the size of the potential opportunity to investors. A second component of the project was the possibility of merging with, or acquiring a substantial equity position in the partner (target) company.
Solution
We first evaluated the evidence of efficacy/activity, selectivity, pharmacology and toxicity using the in vitro and in vivo data generated, and confirmed prospective positioning of the siRNA therapeutic in two cancers.
We also looked at safety evidence for the partner’s vector technology. Using this information, we developed market projections and a financial model for the opportunity, followed by a risk-adjusted valuation model. Given the uncertainty around a still relatively early stage program, we used our experience and judgement to develop key input assumptions for the valuation model, and set the valuation against important development, clinical and commercialization milestones.
For the second component of the project, we reviewed the target company’s data in the same manner as above, and then conducted additional desk research on competitive oligonucleotide, and especially siRNA, delivery systems, using the knowledge base of our consultants in the field. We reviewed the target company’s proprietary IP and identified its distinctive value in comparison with competing siRNA delivery systems, progress towards development objectives and prospective income streams through collaborations or licensing, we identified and evaluated key risks, and then we identified possible synergies with our client’s business.
Alacrita then developed a range of valuation scenarios for the target business, including a current valuation for licensing potential, assuming a realistic number of signed licences. We also reviewed transaction values of comparable technology acquisitions or licences. Our findings indicated that the partner’s vector system was indeed competitive for delivery of oligonucleotide therapeutics, making this a realistic, yet still risky opportunity for our client.
Valuations
Our expertise in performing business and asset valuations covers a wide range of technology types including small molecules, biologics and cell and gene therapies. Valuations have been a staple of our practice since our inception in 2009.
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