Challenge:
An oncology biotech company with a proprietary therapeutics development platform technology was in the process of fundraising activities. The company's pipeline included three main therapeutics in development, each for three distinct indications. The company asked Alacrita to develop a current pipeline valuation in order to guide their financing discussions, which were scheduled to occur in two weeks’ time.
Solution:
Alacrita developed a current total pipeline valuation for the biotech company's assets. The valuation was based on the aggregate valuation of each product, taking into account the value of each product for each indication in development, for a total of nine indications. We created projections for the addressable market, penetration, pricing and associated product revenues for seven major markets: US, EU5, and Japan. We similarly developed projections for costs, timelines, and probabilities of success at each go/no-go point. Given the uncertainty around a number of input assumptions, we used Monte Carlo simulation to capture a range of values for each assumption. This provided an rNPV range, instead of a single value, and allowed us to probe the parameters that drove the sensitivity of the model.
Alacrita continues to provide ongoing valuation support in order to determine the changes in the valuation of the pipeline as it matures.
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